Breaking down the Totally shocking, completely out of left field Jimmy Butler trade.
Months after everyone outside of Minnesota realized that the toxic atmosphere surrounding a post-trade demand Jimmy Butler was going to torpedo their season, Scott Layden and Tom Thibodeau finally settled on a package to move their super?star player out of town. Apparently they felt it better to bury themselves in a 4-9 hole and piss off their highly paid foundational pieces in Wiggins and Towns for a couple months instead of shipping Jimmy Buckets back in September.
The destination wasn’t to any of the desired locations that Butler had listed with his original demand, though (Knicks, Nets, Clippers and famously not the LeBron-led Lakers).
It appears that Brooklyn was unwilling to part with rising star Caris Levert (19/4/4 and nearly 48% shooting) and Allen Crabbe just wasn’t moving the needle for Minny. The Knicks are, well, the Knicks. Who on their roster outside of a rehabbing Porzingis would you trade a borderline top 10 player for? Frankie Nicotine? Hardaway Jr. (a less efficient, older and more expensive version of Levert)? Pass. And the Clippers are kind of in cap hell, so any trade would have decimated the roster (a roster that mind you has them at 7-5 and a 6 seed in the ultra competitive West, something that I um…totally predicted in my NBA preview last month). They might have to wait until the offseason to try and land themselves a superstar when expiring contracts to Harris, Gortat, et al.frees up nearly sixty million dollars.
There were rumblings that Miami might try to dip their toes in the water and feel out how Minneapolis liked a package built around Josh Richardson, Waiters and a 1st rounder. Whether or not Pat Riley called Thibodeau a mother(bleep)er upon Thibs insistence he get more picks is most likely something only they know for sure but it’s just too amazing of a story to not sort of, kind of hope is true. (By the way Richardson is a DOG. Remember when he drilled a three from somewhere in Fort Lauderdale to crush my Pistons in OT last week? I do.)
After that fizzled, Houston jumped into the fray late offering their 1st round draft picks in alternating years until approximately 2054, but that was rebuffed as well. And then there was nothing…until a straw in the form of Friday night’s double digit loss to the surprising Kings (featuring an uninspired Jimmy line of 13 points on 3-12 shooting) broke the Wolves’ backs.
On Saturday, news broke of the trade sending Butler along with Justin Patton to Philly in exchange for Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Jerryd Bayless and a future 2nd.
So, the question must be asked…who won and who lost?
Winners
Tom Thibodeau:
Before the trade, this meme would have perfectly summed up Thibs’s standing in Minneapolis:
Afterwords…we’ll see. It doesn’t completely absolve him of putting this roster together in the first place, letting this whole thing fester for months on end and potentially* missing out on a cheap young talent like Josh Richardson because he overplayed his hand.
So while his seat is still warm, he now is freed from the constant distraction and media coverage that the Butler circus brought, plus he gains a couple of floor stretching wings that he can spread around his newly crowned Alpha in Karl Anthony Towns. We’ll see if he can adapt to the modern NBA and let these guys rip it from downtown or if this move just spared him the guillotine until April.
Jimmy Butler:
He didn’t land in any of his desired locations and his reputation as a team-guy may be irreparably harmed, but still he kind of got what he wanted. Not only does he go to a contender but it’s a contender in the relatively easier Eastern Conference. That means, most likely, a deep Playoff run which should no doubt bolster his free agency case next year.
Not to be forgotten, he goes from Thibodeau who was so shameless in pushing his stars’ bodies to the point of breakdown in search for wins, to a more player friendly leader in Brett Brown. For a guy who’s played 70+ games only once in his career who also happens to be seeking a big payday, the lesser load he’ll most assuredly be asked to carry in Philly may end up meaning millions come free agency.
Karl-Anthony Towns:
This one should be obvious. It can’t be fun coming to work everyday having some guy in your ear doing his best R. Lee Ermey from Full Metal Jacket. He still has to deal with Thibodeau, but that may only be temporary. He’s the man now in Minnesota (he’s certainly getting paid that way) and the team now will be built with him as the focus.
On top of that, if the team does nothing the rest of the year, he gets a mulligan. His numbers should get a modest bump with Butler and his 22.3% usage rate now in the land of Cheez-Whiz (I anticipate near 25 and 12 he put up in 2016-17). Having said that, nobody expects him to be able to drag this weary squad from the near basement to contender status. The team can focus on developing some chemistry with the new additions in Saric and Covington and look towards next year.
Losers
Joel Embiid:
We go from one young big who probably looked something like this on Saturday when news of the trade broke-
to another who may not be quite so thrilled. On Saturday after a loss to the Grizzlies, Embiid was asked by ESPN reporter Tim MacMahon how he felt about Butler’s sometimes abrasive version of leadership. His response was…tepid, at best.
“I want to win first and foremost … if it’s beneficial for me and for the team, then no problem,” Embiid said. “But if it’s something that I don’t think is going to be good for this franchise, then that’s not OK.”
To anyone who has ever watched the big man play, this should some as no surprise. He is an Alpha’s Alpha. A modern day Hakeem Olajuwon, only with 100% more trash-talking, mean-tweeting and Rihanna-chasing. This is not a man used to taking a back seat to anyone. Just look at his usage. He’s currently 7th in the League at 31.0%, or roughly 7 points higher than Towns’s usage in Minnesota. (The next closest big is Blake Griffin at 28.4%)
So what’s more likely- Butler acquiesces to Embiid’s ball-dominant ways and happily picks up the scraps left over that used to belong to Covington/Saric? OR He cuts into Embiid’s usage and the two butt heads both on the court and in the locker room leading to a disappointing 5th seed finish behind Toronto, Boston, Milwaukee and let’s say Indiana? Even though they now have a Big 3 that rivals anyone’s outside of the Bay, I’m not sold the personalities can coexist. TBD.
Markelle Fultz:
I’m not trying to pile on the kid. His downward spiral from can’t miss prospect to a bust with the ‘yips’ of Knoblauchian proportions…
…has been painful to watch. It is early, though, and there’s still time for Fultz to put it together and get his groove back like Stella. I just don’t see it happening while Jimmy’s in town.
Butler gnashed on two other high draft picks while in Minnesota in Wiggins and Towns, but they had already somewhat established themselves in the League. But a guy who’s jumper looks like Philip Seymour Hoffman’s in Along Came Polly? Sheesh…Butler will eat him alive.
I say good luck to Brett Brown. He’s got to manage Butler and Embiid’s oversized egos, make sure Simmons still has room to flourish, AND find shooters to compliment Butler’s mid-to-close-range game. But protecting his fragile former #1 pick (even if that means burying him so deep on the bench he may as well be in Witness Protection) may be his toughest task. Looking forward beyond this year, it may also be the most important one.