this is part 3 of 3 in Fishkorn’s NBA Preview. If you haven’t read parts 1 and 2 yet (found here and here, respectively), please do or else you’ll be as lost as j.r. smith at the end of game 1.
Welcome back my friends to the NBA Preview that never ends! (that’s an Emerson, Lake and Palmer reference for all you lovers of 70’s era British Prog Rock. I know you’re out there). It’s been a long, perilous journey to get to this point, but I feel we are finally ready to take what we’ve learned from years of Sports Illustrated’s Top 100 lists and apply it to predict the upcoming NBA season.
To recap:
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We can mostly predict a team’s final regular standing by looking at how many ‘top 100’ players are on the roster.
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of almost equal predictability were a team’s depth or ‘deep 6’ (how many players from the top 100 list occupy their top 6 roster spots) and the quality of the top of their roster or ‘big 3’ (focusing on a team’s best three players)
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the list’s predictability wanes in the face of certain circumstances which are as follows: an immediately impactful rookie, a player making ‘the leap’, exceptional or poor coaching, a lack of an ‘alpha dog’, an abundance of injuries especially to one of the ‘big 3’ and of course, the presence of dwight howard.
Makes sense? Good.
So what do we do with all of this information? We’re gonna do whatever I want to do! You know why? BECAUSE YOU (BLEEPING) NEED ME! YOU CAN’T PARSE THROUGH ALL THIS MUNDANE DATA WITHOUT ME!
(shakes head in attempt to break free from wave of Butler-esque megalomania)
Sorry about that. I don’t know what came over me. I just…got all angry all of a sudden and felt a strong urge to book a flight to Miami. Weird.
Anyway, here’s how we’re gonna do this.
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Each team starts with a regular season ranking that is an average of what the deep 6 and the big 3 predicted (indicated as d6/b3).
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for each team we will either add or subtract a point for each of the reasons headlined in point #3 above (coaching, injuries, etc) for an adjusted rank (indicated as adj)
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i will use that subsequent ranking to predict the final standing, reserving the right to nudge in either direction for any reason, at my discretion.
Let’s rock and roll…
30. Atlanta Hawks: d6/b3-28, adj-28(T)
Lets face it…I could have stuck at least three or four teams in the basement here and nobody would have raised a fuss, in fact three ended up with the same adjusted rank of 28. There just happens to be a lot of suck in the NBA right now, particularly in the East. I went with Atlanta because I just am not a believer in Trae Young. I may have to eat my words someday, and that’s OK. It wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong on a prospect. I still have an Ed O’Bannon jersey lying around somewhere.
Young will inevitably become their Alpha, for which I subtracted a point. Right now, I see him only as a Steph wannabe, which admittedly is not a bad thing to want to be. The problem is that Steph is such a unique talent with an almost robotic repetitiveness to his release and a ridiculously quick trigger. He can be mimicked, but not duplicated. I see more busted 35-footers than NBA championships in Young’s future.
Another point was subtracted for a rookie coach, in Lloyd Pierce. An assistant throughout the process in Philadelphia, he became very accustomed to losing, something I foresee a lot of this year in Hotlanta. (Side note: I almost gave a ‘leap’ point for my guy, John Collins. 10/7/1 with block last year as a rookie. I see at least a 20% increase across the board for him this year.)
29. Brooklyn Nets: d6/b3-29, adj-28(T)
I finally had the pleasure of visiting Brooklyn last week for the first time. As an outsider, the narrative I’d heard was how it was all hipster bars and coffee shops, boutiques and Barclays Centers. A vision of gentrification. Now that may be true in some neighborhoods, namely Williamsburg, I found most of it to be an intriguing mix of the old establishment (Jewish bakeries, century-old rowhouses, black Caribbean culture) and the new. Just like this Nets roster.
You’ve got some savvy vets in Kenneth Faried, DeMarre Carroll and Jared Dudley mixed in with some young talent in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris Levert (+1pt due to his ‘leap’ candidacy. 50% increases in PTS and AST from year 1 to 2 with increased 3PT%) and D’Angelo Russell (their de-facto Alpha…-1pt).
The problem for the basketball team (not so much for the city) is that the quality of the mix leaves much to be desired. Until they upgrade on the talent side, there’ll be a lot of ups and downs. Some nights will be fun, like when Russell (for whom I detracted another point due to his injury history) runs a perfect pick-and-roll with Faried thundering down the paint for a dunk and other nights it will be like when a filthy rat nearly skittered across my shoetops on Nostrand Ave.
28. Sacramento Kings: d6/b3-30, adj-28(T)
Released in 2005, Daniel Powter’s massive hit “Bad Day” really didn’t make a dent on the U.S. Pop Charts until ’06. Coincidentally, that was the last year that the Sacramento Kings made the playoffs. Yeah. Twelve years ago. Since then, everyday has been a series of ‘bad days’ for Kings fans due to a blend of ownership failure, stadium controversy and a whole mess of bad draft picks.
This year portends to be no different. With Luka Dončić staring them in the face (and maybe even Jaren Jackson, Jr.) they went and drafted Marvin Bagley III. Again, my track record on judging rookies is spotty (see: O’Bannon, Ed) but I just don’t see a fit there with Caulie-Stein, Koufos, Randolph and fellow rookie Harry Giles. What I do see is a desperate need for scoring and playmaking, something Luka appears to do quite well. He also shows some Alpha-like traits, something this team lacks (-1pt. Randolph doesn’t count anymore).
I do like D’Aaron Fox, though (+1 for ‘the leap’). He kinda reminds me of a taller, less-refined Damon Stoudamire. He’s quick and shifty and plays with a reckless abandon that will at least give fans at the Golden 1 Center something to cheer about.
27. New York Knicks: d6/b3-26, adj-26
The injury to Porzingis really subtracted 2 points for this hopeless crew because it not only robbed them of their best player for probably most of the year, but it also stripped them of an Alpha. Realistically, this team is royally screwed (not quite Spurs-level screwed, but we’ll get to them later) without him out there on the court. Who are they gonna go to when they need a bucket or a play to lift them from their doldrums (because, believe me, there will be doldrums)? I mean, look at that roster. Hardaway? Mudiay?
The only reason they aren’t dead last on this list is Coach Fiz. I like his straight-shooter mentality and judging by the outpouring of support he got from the NBA community after his canning last season, he will bring an instant credibility to that locker room. If they can get anything from rookie Kevin Knox or if Frankie Smokes makes HUGE progress from last year, they may be able to rise a spot or two. Otherwise, you’d better hope Durant has eyes looking Eastward.
26. Chicago Bulls: d6/b3-27, adj-27
I had the Bulls leapfrog the Knicks mainly because there is some actual talent on this roster. Zach Levine’s ACL is finally healthy (though not as healthy as his bank account…seriously? He got 4 years and 78 million?).
Jabari (Jabar-knee? How has that not caught on yet?) Parker may not endorse the practice of defense, but he can fill that bucket. Many of the pundits are staking their early claim on Wendell Carter Jr. as a ROY candidate (+1. I think he’ll have a big impact). And that’s not even mentioning our favorite amateur boxer in Bobby Portis, last year’s surprise, Mr. Markkanen (15/7/1) and the Chicagoland Dental community’s favorite son, Kris Dunn (13/6/4. +1 for either him or Lauri ‘leaping’ this year).
They get docked for a couple reasons, though. Hoiberg is not a good coach, or at least he’s not proven to be one yet (-1). And while Levine and Parker are good scorers, neither are really true Alphas (-1) and both seem to have ticking time-bombs in their knees (-1) although I hope we do get to see a healthy season from both of them.
25. Los Angeles Clippers: D6/B3-22, Adj-21(T)
How the mighty have fallen…it was just only three years ago when this team was running two of SI’s Top 10 players out there (Paul was 6, Griffin 8) and another Top 30 in Jordan (29). If it were not for injuries they might have finally brought a title to one of the most tortured fan-bases in all of sport. Alas, here we are in 2018 and I’m predicting them to be the 2nd worst team in the West. Have I gone mad?
I don’t think so. They came in at 22 using our SI data but I’ve dropped them for the following reasons. While I loved having him in Detroit, Tobias Harris is no Blake replacement (SI has him 65th). Beverly is a nice player, but is he even in the top 15 of starting points in the League? Their Alpha(+1), Lou Williams, had a helluva year last year, but can you count on a 32 year old, thin-framed guard to keep up a 22PPG pace, especially when he’d never done it before? I almost sympathetically gave them a point for health (+1), trying to will Gallinari into a healthy season, but it’s probably wishful thinking.
They’re gonna need something special from rookies Gilgeous-Alexander and Robinson in order to jump up to a more respectable level of suck. But should they? They owe Boston their 2019 1st rounder unless they stay lottery bound. I’d be rooting for that if I was a Clipper fan. (side note: they are still paying Carlos Delfino $650,000 this year)
24. Phoenix Suns: D6/B3-24, Adj-24(T)
This high of a ranking for a such a disastrous franchise admittedly is driven by personal bias. I just think it’s fun when the Suns are good and it’s been sooooo long since they’ve consistently been good (one winning season in the last eight). When I think Suns basketball I think of the ‘seven seconds or less’ teams or even, going back a bit further, KJ and Barkley and Thunder Dan. So, instead of seeing the negative in a prospect like Deandre Ayton (poor defensive awareness, low blocks for an athlete of his size and quickness, tendency to shoot low percentage jumpers instead of using his size down low…)
I’d like to focus on the fact that he’s an absolute freak at 7’0 with 7’5” wingspan and feather-light on his feet. So he gets a +1.
They get another point for having a clear-cut Alpha in Booker (he’d better be for what they’re paying him) but they lose one for having a rookie coach in Igor Kokoskov who I’m pretty sure played center for the Red Wings in the mid-90s.
Maybe I’m wrong but can’t a team with Ayton and Booker as anchors, surrounded by vets like Ariza and Ryan Anderson and sprinkled with some youthful exuberance from Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren get to 30 wins and at least bother some teams?
23. Orlando Magic: D6/B3-23, Adj-23
Kind of like an Eastern Conference version of the Suns; a franchise with multiple eras of success (Shaq and Penny years, Dwight and shooters years) but a lot of losing and poor managerial decisions more recently (six straight losing seasons). The difference for me is that with Phoenix, I see somewhat of a base or at least a notion of direction.
I like Johnathan Isaac. His numbers aren’t terribly impressive, but if you squint really hard and look at him sideways, you can kind of see an extremely poor man’s Giannis (more likely Darius Miles, 2.0). Either way he gets a +1 for a ‘leap’ this year. I’m gonna give them a point for Gordon being their Alpha because I think he can be closer to his Pre All-Star split last season (18/8/2, 35% from deep) and how meh he was the rest of the year (16/7/3, 32%).
Beyond that, I’m not sure. Mo Bamba is intriguing, but I don’t think he’ll have immediate impact like some of his classmates. Fournier and Vucevic are nice players, but they really don’t move the needle that much. Realistically, the only reason they are this high is that they play in the East. They’re bound to stack some wins against the Nets and Knicks of the world.
22. Charlotte Hornets: D6/B3-21, Adj-21(T)
Another one of these East teams where I’m not too sure what they can possibly sell their season ticket holders (all 37 of them) on what to be excited for this year. They have a bona fide Alpha in Kemba Walker (+1) that would look great in Piston blue. He’s a bulldog with an improved 3 pointer who’s gonna give you 80+ games. A fine player.
What else? The bloated contract of Nicolas Batum (the poster child of the rising cap spending spree), Kidd-Gilchrist (the quintessential ‘__ and D’ guy) and a couple bigs in Kaminski and Zeller (which sounds like a new buddy cop show starting this fall On TNT starring Jason Biggs and Haley Joel Osment).
They’ve got a rookie coach this year in James Borrego (-1), the latest branch of the Popovich tree to get a head coaching gig. He’s going to have his work cut out for him. If Tony Parker can find the fountain of youth and Miles Bridges has a better rookie campaign then what I see coming (I’m still having flashbacks to all those missed threes in the NCAA Tournament) then maybe they can sneak into the 8 seed. More likely they flounder up until the deadline and end up moving Walker (he’s expiring) for a pick and a young guy. Hey, at least they don’t have Dwight Howard this year(+1!).
21. Memphis Grizzlies: D6/B3-16, Adj-16
This team and the next West team on this list feel like they are at least 4-5 spots too low. The Grizzlies should be healthier this year (but I still had to detract a point for my man Mike Conley. Last year was rough), but the problem is that the West is a real…let’s just say if the West had a wallet, it would be like Sam Jackson’s in Pulp Fiction. I just can’t see a way this team gets back into the playoff picture with they way the rest of the Conference stacks up.
Well, maybe I can. Jaren Jackson, Jr. would have to be a monster in his rookie year (which I have a sneaking suspicion he might, +1), Conley will have to remain on the court (has missed 109 games last three seasons) AND they’ll have to get the Chandler Parson from Dallas (16/5/4 with a deadly shot) and not the version he’s been since the big contract. They may as well have signed Chandler Bing for how he’s played.
That’s a tall order. At least they’ve got good barbecue down there.
20. Miami Heat: D6/B3-18, Adj-16(T)
I’m done with this team. Every year I look at their uninspired roster and think to myself “the Pistons will be better than them.” And every year, I am dead wrong. They always do better than I anticipate which is probably a testament to Spoelstra as a coach (+1) . Even without LeBron for the last four years they’ve only had one sub .500 record.
This is the year, though, that I feel their lopsided, guard-centric roster will keep them from the Playoffs. Dragic is a great player (and their Alpha, +1) and he’ll keep them in a lot of games, so his spot in the backcourt is locked in. But then what? Wade is back for his farewell tour and I don’t see him content doing so while pinned to the bench. Waiters is back, too and his 12 million dollar contract will almost guarantee him minutes. Where does that leave Josh Richardson (‘leaper’ +1)? Justise Winslow? Tyler Johnson? That’s six guys for maybe 120 minutes if you run Winslow at the 3 at least half the time. Who’ll be content getting their run cut? I think somebody’s gotta go…perhaps to Minnesota in a trade for a certain disgruntled Wolf (which if that happens, they are absolutely Playoff bound).
If it doesn’t, I see Pat Riley repeatedly shouting a word he usually saves for Tom Thibodeau at every poor defenseless soul who happens by him in the American Airlines Arena corridors.
19. San Antonio Spurs: D6/B3-14, Adj-14
It doesn’t make any sense that they are nineteenth on this list. They haven’t been this low since…like 1997? There are college kids buying their first drink as you read this that have never known a bad Spurs team. They have been the Patriots of basketball, a team you can pencil in to a Playoff spot before the season even starts. So why am I down on them?
First they downgraded from Kawhi (their Alpha. I’m not buying LaMarcus as a leader. -1), a Top 10 guy when he’s healthy to DeMar DeRozan who, while no slouch, is not in that same league. That in and of itself isn’t a death sentence. The problem lies at the point. DeJounte Murray, a third year guard who was primed to take on a bigger role with Parker Carolina-bound, tore his ACL and is out for the year.
Well, at least they can turn to second year guard, Derrick White (update: he’s out 6-8 weeks with a heel injury).
Goodness! If Pop (+1) can pull a Playoff team out of this decimated roster, they may need to consider renaming the city of San Antonio to San Angroanio, you know because Popovich is kind of a grump who groans a lot…or not. It was just a thought.
18. Dallas Mavericks: d6/b3-19.5, adj-19
I really like this team. Don’t get me wrong. I don’t like them in a “I think the Mavs might win it all” kind of way. It’s more of a casual appreciation like they’ve caught my glance from afar and I find myself struggling to look away.
Why? Look at this starting five: Center- Jordan, PF- Dirk, SF- Barnes, SG- Dončić (impact rookie, +1), PG- Smith, Jr (‘leap’ candidate, +1). Add in one of the most respected coaches in the league (+1) and a bench with a few nice pieces in Matthews and Finney-Smith…there’s a lot to like here, right Mark?
They may need to upgrade at the back-up point and maybe someone other than Powell to solidify their bench. Either way, an 8 seed isn’t out of the question.
17. Cleveland Cavaliers: D6/B3-25, Adj-24(T)
They say Hell hath no fury as a woman scorned and I’d say the same thing applies to basketball teams. Most of the Cav’s predictions I’ve seen seem to be forgetting about that. Remember, this is essentially the same group that the media wiped their backsides with last year in the Playoffs. You’re telling me that there won’t be an extra chip on their collective shoulders trying to prove that they aren’t the hot garbage everyone said they were back when Old Whatshisname was in town?
That is why I basically threw the SI List predictability rankings out the window. I’m looking at a guy ready to reclaim his Minnesota Alpha status in Kevin Love (+1), a rookie point who will be given every opportunity to start and play big minutes from the jump (+1), a solid ‘leap’ candidate in Larry Nance, Jr and some young wings ready to take some of those LeBron minutes in Osman and Dekker. That’s not even mentioning the guy with the MOST to prove this year; Rodney Hood. His dreams of a big payday came crashing down last year after a mid-season trade brought him into that media circus. But he can play. If he doesn’t go for at least 16PPG this year I’ll be shocked.
16. Minnesota Timberwolves: D6/B3-7, Adj-8(T)
I know that this team on paper should be a significantly higher, but I can’t see this season going well for them. When your star player stages a one-man mutiny weeks before the season in order to get traded and then, in the absence of said trade, proceeds to drop an atom bomb on anyone who he perceives as weak (everyone) in a fevered and intense practice which he ends with an expletive-laden tirade about his superiority…things could be better.
They have to lose a point for Thibs’ mismanaging of not only his players’ workload but this chaotic cluster(bleep) of a current situation they find themselves in. Yes I know that last year, when Butler was healthy, they were a top 3 team in the West. But that was last year. If they trade him now they are back to being a tweener team lumped in with Dallas and San Antonio fighting for the luxury of being blasted by the Warriors in the first round. If they keep him, be prepared for six months of Butler going full ‘F U’ mode, driving 1 on 5 into the teeth of opposing team’s ‘D’ and then when he scores, turning and berating KAT and Wiggins so incessantly that they wet themselves. This should be fun.
15. Detroit Pistons: D6/B3- 19, Adj-20
Before anybody thinks that putting the Pistons this high is an extreme case of homer-ism, remember two things:
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This is not a power ranking. It is solely a rank of regular season records.
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If a team seems too high, they probably play in the East. The West is like Thunderdome out there.
Having said that, I do believe the Pistons are Playoff-bound for the first time in three years. We have a certified Alpha in Mr. Kia himself, Blake Griffin (+1) and a couple of betas in RJax (-1 due to the fact that he seems to have an allergy to hardwood) and Drum that we’d probably think more highly of if they played in other cities.
I took a point away for injuries because, yeah…Griffin, but I gave that point right back because of our new leader, the venerable Dwane Casey (+1). He came in here with a calm, stoic demeanor which I think appeals to the players more so than the fiery, passionate approach preferred by our previous coach (although Stan Van’s wall-building acumen was far superior).
If I were to say that Reggie Bullock is one of the most underrated 2-guards out there, that Stanley Johnson is primed for a breakout and Luke Kennard reminds me of a copy of a copy of Manu Ginobili…now THAT would be homer-ism. So I won’t say those things.
14. New Orleans Pelicans: D6/B3-10, Adj-10(T)
I’m glad that the silliness of pairing Anthony Davis, the most underappreciated superstar in the league, with DeMarcus Cousins is over with. It was a fool’s notion to think that it would work (although they did get Boogie for a song) and it was proven to be the wrong approach come Playoff time when they spread shooters around A.D. and let Holiday and Rondo cause havoc on the perimeter. Unfortunately for Pelifans, their big Free Agent acquisition was Julius Randle. Now, I like Randle in a vacuum. His 16 and 8 with a .558 FG% last year for a bad Lakers team was solid, but he does most of his damage down low, where Davis should be.
Running Mirotic out there at center (as he plays further from the basket) allows Davis to roam the paint and do all those freak things he does. Losing Rondo also hurts (which I never thought I would say in 2018) but it could be compensated for if Holiday (24/6/6 last year in the Playoffs) takes that next ‘leap’ (+1).
13. Washington Wizards: D6/B3-9(T), Adj-12
There were -1s gettin’ thrown around left and right when I crunched the numbers on this team like we were all in the Harpo studio audience circa 2004…
Scott Brooks? -1. Presence of Dwight Howard? Oh, you know that’s a -1. Alpha and best player John Wall coming off an injury-plagued season (not to mention strictly adhering to an off-season diet and workout regimen reminiscent of mine during my Freshman year of College)? YOU CAN PUT IT ON THE BOARD!! -1!!
Sure there’s talent here. Truckloads. Beal, Porter, Wall. That’s a nice Big 3. Austin Rivers suffers from being the presumed beneficiary of nepotism but he’s actually decent. And it pains me to say but Dwight’s 17/12 with 1.5 BPG wasn’t that far off to his third year in the League, back when we all were actually OK with calling him Superman.
But it doesn’t matter. There will be infighting. There will be underachieving. They will tease and they will compel us to watch but they still won’t make a Conference Finals.
12. Los Angeles Lakers: D6/B3-17, Adj-15
You were wondering where this team would land, weren’t you? The SI Top 100 data wasn’t very kind to them, which shouldn’t be too surprising. Outside of Mr. James who does this team have that strikes fear into an opponent? Beasley? Lance? Ahem…Javale?
But wait…isn’t the ultimate mark of a superstar the ability to make their teammates better? At least I think I’ve heard that before. So far this preseason, I’ve seen Brandon Ingram (+1, ‘leap’) looking REAL comfortable out there now that there is a giant distraction on the court taking opposing defense’s eyes off of him. The same goes for Josh Hart.
Here’s what’ll happen. As the season progresses, the veterans that became punchlines this off-season as the Lakers roster was being pieced together will be slowly replaced with those kids (don’t forget about Lonzo. He is going to make a huge step forward this year, as well) so that LeBron (+1, Alpha, but it could have easily been +4) can play maestro to more of an uptempo, free-flowing offense.
Will it be enough to topple the Warriors? Oh, Hell no. They might not even get past the first round of the Playoffs. But I am excited to see James out there with a bunch of young guys with potential rather than another round of him trying to drag guys like Channing Frye, J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver and Richard Jefferson across the finish line.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: D6/B3- 13, Adj-13
If you are one of the two people (besides me) who read Part 2 of Fishkorn’s 2018-19 NBA Preview, you may remember a little nugget buried deep within my analysis of some outlier Blazers teams of the past few years. It was…
Don’t Sleep on Dame
Lillard’s teams consistently seem to outperform their talent, and he kinda keeps getting better and better (last season’s abysmal Playoff performance notwithstanding). I foresee another season of mid-20s scoring with good assist and rebound numbers paired with at least a handful of eye-dropping plays (most likely within the last minute or so of a close game).
I could also go on about how good McCollum is and how Nurkic is a solid big, but it doesn’t matter. They will be right there in the mix because of their Alpha (+1).
One sad note…they recently released Gary Payton, Jr (The Mitten?) but on the bright side they have a rookie named Anfernee Simons (only the 2nd Anfernee in the history of the League!)
10. Indiana Pacers: D6/B3-15, Adj-14
Last season the Celtics were one of two East teams to force a deciding Game 7 with Cleveland (the Raptors were not one of those teams…they couldn’t even force a Game 5. Maybe I should temper my excitement about Dwane Casey). The other was these Indiana Pacers. In that Game 7, they were only down two going into the 4th and were still within four in the final minute.
They impressed me that night. They fought hard, they found themselves a real Alpha in Oladipo and they had some intriguing pieces around him in Myles Turner and Domatas Sabonis. What they lacked is somebody other than Lance Stephenson to take some of the scoring pressure off of Vic. Enter Tyreke Evans.
He had a ‘remember me?’ kind of season last year in Memphis, taking advantage of Conley’s absence to become more of a primary scoring option. He dropped 19/5/5 with a steal, similar to when he was a rising star out in Sacramento. And the Pacers got him on a VERY team-friendly 1-year deal for 12 million (or a shade over what the Pistons are paying Jon Leuer…fml).
Put him in that Game 7 last year instead of Lance and Cleveland is going home early. This year could get interesting in Indianapolis (if not, Pacers fans can always drown their sorrows in a Porterhouse at St. Elmo’s).
9. Utah Jazz: D6/B3-7(T), Adj-6(T)
Donovan Mitchell is good (+1, Alpha) though we here in Detroit have probably over-inflated his greatness because of how we longed for his name to be called instead of Kennard’s that fateful night last June. But he is not the (only) reason the Jazz are ranked this high.
They are here because they just do things the right way (and they kind of always have). They have a great fan base in one of the toughest places to play in the whole League, a suffocating defense led by Rudy Gobert (pronounced as if you were trying to shoo away a grizzly from your picnic) and a guy who’d probably be getting more national love if he coached in a major market in Quin Snyder (+1).
They are bringing back most of the crew who won them 48 games last year in a brutal Western Conference, so I expect more of the same. Be on the lookout for former Top 5 pick Dante Exum. If he’s healthy, he may finally fulfill some of the promise he had coming from the land down under.
8. Denver Nuggets: D6/B3-7(T), Adj-6(T)
Both the SI Top 100 rank and my adjusted version loved the Jazz and this Nuggets team equally.
There are some parallels to be drawn. For starters, they both have dynamic young guards (Mitchell for the Jazz, Jamal Murray for the Nugs). Murray’s and Mitchell’s numbers are almost the same (Jamal comes in at a couple points less, but otherwise…) but he doesn’t get nearly the love Don does from the national media. But he might this year. I think he’ll confirm his Alpha status (+1) and take ‘the leap’ (+1) to the next nevel. Watch out.
Another similarity is they both have above average coaching (Mike Malone, +1). The only thing that may stop this team is another injury to one of their core guys like what happened to Millsap (-1) last year. Besides those two, Denver has a developing young wing in former Spartan Gary Harris and the best passing big since Arvydas in Nikola Jokic (a guy that would be more famous if he played closer to an ocean). And that isn’t even mentioning a possible revenge tour for Isaiah Thomas. As I said before, watch out.
7. Milwaukee Bucks: D6/B3-9(T), Adj-8(T)
Within two years, Mike Budenholzer (+1) turned a blah Atlanta Hawks team into a 60-win force and a 1 seed in the East. That turnaround may even had happened a season sooner, had it not been for injuries to Al Horford, his best player.
Why am I telling you this?
Because it scares the hell out of me. I already know that there are at least three teams in the East that are head and shoulders better than my Pistons. But for some reason I like to think that, if things go right (see: Jackson, Reggie) that we may be able to claw our way up into that next tier and maybe, gasp, host a Playoff series. But if Bud works his magic in Milwaukee, that just ain’t happening.
In Giannis (+1, Alpha) he has a superstar who still hasn’t scratched the surface on what he might be capable of. In Middleton, he has a perfect complimentary piece and in Bledsoe (who, like Lillard, was rather terrible in the Playoffs last year) he has another anchor in the backcourt. Their off-season was a little quiet, but they did bring back Ilyasova, who proved with Philly that he could still bring something to the table other than the endless supply of pump-fakes he displayed as a Piston.
I know there’s a joke somewhere in there about how even in Miller country, they’ll be enjoying Bud this year, but I just can’t be bothered.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder: D6/B3-5, Adj-5
When you pull up the Thunder’s basketballreference.com franchise page, there is a horizontal bar displaying photos of all the great players that ever played for them. There’s Kevin Durant.There’s Russell Westbrook. There’s Detlef Shrempf. Wait, what?
It was only for a split second that I forgot that this is the team that was hijacked from Seattle. Once I saw an unflattering late-period Shawn Kemp photo (there’s a joke in there somewhere too. Think about it) it clicked again and it irked me. Seattle needs a team again. That is all.
About this year’s Thunder…they get a point for having the most Alpha-y Alpha there is in Russ (-1 though for his early season injury. Hopefully it doesn’t linger) and another for jettisoning Carmelo to a fellow Western rival (by way of the Hawks) because at this point Melo and Dwight are kindred spirits. Beyond that, George is gonna George and Adams is gonna Adams, but a guy that I think will really help them is Dennis Schroeder. He is not a great starting point, but he instantly becomes one of the better back-ups in the League. They’ll be dangerous.
5. Philadelphia 76ers: D6/B3-4, Adj-3(T)
I’m not entirely sure what happened this off-season for the Sixers. They had a monster of a coming out party in17-18 which culminated in a 4-1 series loss in the Eastern Conference Semis to Boston. Not bad for a team that had a robust .265 winning percentage over the previous five years.
So what did they do with all of that goodwill? Not much. There were rumblings early on that they were in the mix for LeBron (which I’m not entirely sure would have been the best fit with Simmons) but we all know how that turned out. Then they were pushing hard for Kawhi, which actually would have been an AMAZING fit. Imagine him out there with Embiid (+1, Alpha) and Simmons and a couple shooters (Saric, Redick…). Now that’s a team that could possibly take down the Warriors. But did they land him?
So they went with Plan C…Wilson Chandler (there’s a big gap between Plan B and C). Part of their failures may be traceable back to their peculiar General Manager situation. First there was that whole Colangelo-wife-burner phone conspiracy then they got rebuffed by Daryl Morey like I did asking cheerleaders for dates back in high school. So, that left them again with a Plan C, which in this case was Elton Brand, an in-house hire.
Having said all that, there is a ton a talent, and if Fultz can ‘leap’ (+1) this year as many predict hope he might, they will still make a ton of noise. Their ceiling just may not be as high as it would have if they’d landed Plans A or B.
4. Toronto Raptors: D6/B3-10, Adj-10(T)
I subtracted a point for the Raps having a rookie coach (I did for every team with a first timer) but I’m not entirely sure I should have. From all accounts, Nick Nurse was the architect of the Raptors offensive changes last year as an assistant.
Those changes were emphasizing a more uptempo approach (pace went from 24th in the League in 16-17 to 14th last year) and more 3s, especially from notorious mid-ranger DeMar DeRozan (1.7 attempts in 16-17 to 3.6). Not coincidentally, the Raptors jumped from 51 wins to 59 and a 1 seed (again, maybe I should temper my Casey enthusiasm).
Oh, and did I mention they added a Top 5 player (when healthy) in Kawhi Leonard (+1 for Alpha, -1 for strange quad injuries). Superior in almost every way to the now departed DeRozan (except maybe loyalty), he should keep the Raps at or near the top of the now LeBron-less East. Add in a certified ‘leap’ candidate in Pascal Siakam (+1) and you never know, maybe the Raps could land their first ever Finals appearance.
3. Houston Rockets: D6/B3-2, Adj-3(T)
I’m still not over their terrible, horrible, no good, very bad shooting performance in Game 7 of last year’s WCF (I’m really sick of the Warriors winning if you haven’t already picked up on it). Here is a supercut of all 27 straight missed 3’s (from ESPN). *WARNING* NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART
Seriously…they couldn’t have made just a couple of those? Or D’Antoni (+1) couldn’t have called a play that involved, oh I don’t know, driving to the basket? Well, they should be fine this year. They added Carmelo (-1).
All joking aside, this team will still be one of the best in the League because they have two of the League’s best players in Paul (-1 for injuries. I am a little concerned he’s a ‘reverse leap’ candidate, though. And they just paid him all that money. SMH) and Harden (+1, Alpha). They lost Ariza, but I think they can survive that. The Melo addition is going to be interesting, though. If he can finally accept his waning ability to become more of a supporting player, he may actually help them. But that’s a big IF.
2. Golden State Warriors: D6/B3-1, Adj-1
It’s nothing personal, Warriors. I’m just a fan of the underdogs. Maybe it’s my Detroit upbringing (we’re the perpetual underdog) that keeps me from rooting for Goliath in lieu of the twenty-nine Davids. I don’t know. It was the same thing for me with Jordan’s Bulls, the Kobe/Shaq Lakers and, even crossing over to the realm of football, Brady’s Patriots. It’s just not interesting to me when the team that everybody thinks will win wins. In fact, this pretty much summed up my reaction to when Golden State wrapped up their 3rd title in 4 years back in June.
So when you took a team with a great coach (Kerr, +1), two Top 5 players (Durant, Steph, both Alphas +1), SI’s 13th and 22nd best players as support (Draymond and Klay, respectively) and then you add DeMarcus Cousins to that mix?! How could I possibly get behind that sort of gluttonous behavior. Is GM Bob Myers some kind of sadist?
(Sigh)
There are two possible scenarios that keep them from winning a 4th title.
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Injuries to not just one of their top guys (they’re too deep for that to have much of an effect) but to several of them. (Full Disclosure- I Am not Openly rooting for this. I’m Not a Monster)
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Like adding an Eddie Van Halen-esque guitar solo to an orchestral production of Vivaldi’s Four Seasons, the addition of Boogie Cousins to this well-oiled machine throws off the whole mix.
Suffice to say, the Larry O’Brien trophy can get comfortable out there in the Bay. It’s not going anywhere.
1. Boston Celtics: D6/B3-3, Adj-2
Confused? I just said the Warriors are an unstoppable force and yet, here I am placing the Celtics above them. Remember…what I said during the Pistons breakdown (I know…it’s been a while). You know, that thing about this NOT being a power ranking…
Having said that, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Celts do end up winning it all this year. They are the Warriors East as far as loaded rosters are concerned. Kyrie (+1 Alpha, -1 injuries. He misses like 20 games a year), Tatum, Brown, Hayward and Horford. An absolute embarassment of riches.
Throw in arguably the League’s best coach in Brad Stevens (+1) and a deep bench containing a trio of dudes I wouldn’t want to run into in an alley late at night (not that I hang out in alleys) in Baynes, Smart and Marcus Morris.
They also play in front of some of the most passionate fans in all of sport and have a legacy of winning that stretches for decades. So obviously I am picking them to meet up with the Warriors in the Finals, right?
*BEEP, BEEP* Back that Boston hype train up for a sec.
This isn’t a video game. You can’t just plug a couple of high-usage, big money players like Irving and Hayward into a lineup and think there won’t at least be some growing pains especially when you have young guys like Tatum and Brown still looking to establish themselves as stars in the League. You think they’ll be so amenable to taking a smaller role after how they played in the Playoffs last year?
“Ok, guy. What IS your Finals prediction then?”
You want it? Here it is…
2018-19 NBA Champions
Golden State Warriors over TOronto Raptors in 6
Boom! Annndd that’s about all I got. Thanks for hanging around for almost 7,000 words. Now, let the games begin!